One of the most anticipated content updates for Grand Theft Auto Online is about to be released in coming weeks.
Finally, after almost 6 years, the Casino will open its doors and Los Santos' worst and darkest can try their luck at the tables. But will we be able to try our luck at the tables and gamble for real, or will the Casino actually be abstracted as a business gameplay loop?
You see, Casino does not automatically equal gambling in the world of GTA.
Before we begin, let's nail down that we're not lawyers. Most of you aren't lawyers either. No lawyer has yet commented on this question, at least not in a verified manner — anyone on Reddit can claim to be a lawyer without being one, after all.
That said, based on evidence regarding what happened with Red Dead Online and other games, we can make an educated guess that there probably won't be any actual gambling in the Casino DLC.
The key factor here in GTA Online is the presence of premium currency that isn't separated from regular, in-game currency. We only have $GTA.
Rockstar did things differently with Red Dead Online though, where players can only use real money to purchase one kind of currency (Gold Bars), while gambling can only be done with the other, un-buyable currency (RDO$). This allowed them to implement poker — or so they thought.
Even though Red Dead Online's Poker mini-game doesn't touch real-world money in any shape or form, the gambling mini-game had to be removed entirely in certain regions due to clashing with local online gambling laws. It doesn't help that every country has its own, highly specific laws and regulations regarding online gambling, that sometimes aren't even the same on a national level.
Another thing to keep in mind is temporal context.
For the past few years, regulatory bodies across the globe have cracked down on video games due to the rise of monetization practices like microtransactions, premium currency, and loot boxes. By their powers combined, the AAA industry becomes Captain Exploitation, or so it feels a lot of the time. Some governments are pushing to effectively classify loot boxes as gambling, for example.
Loot boxes, separate currencies — all these try their best to make it seem like real money isn't involved with chance and they're still mired in legal problems. GTA Online outright lets you buy the only currency available, which would also be the same currency you gamble with. We can't see any way that Rockstar would walk into that can of worms.
A few interesting points were raised since the official announcement of the Casino DLC.
Some fans have pointed out that, unless there is a way to cash out winnings as real money, the fact that you can spend real money is irrelevant and the activity does not constitute gambling. It's a good point and may be true — in some jurisdictions. However, online gambling laws change state by state, country by country — see what happened with Red Dead Online, for example.
Gambling in GTA Online's casino may be OK in several countries and states, sure, but chances are it would cause legal issues in far more, which is why it would make better sense for the developers to simply dodge the bullet instead and not implement gambling at all. Rockstar also needs to pay attention to the bigger picture and think ahead, with regulators closing in on modern AAA monetization methods.
If loot boxes are in very real danger of being restricted or outright banned, this sort of virtual gambling with real cash isn't going to fly under the radar either, especially with as high-profile a game as GTA Online, which is both known for setting revenue records and courting international controversy.
The GTA franchise has known controversy since the very beginning and sometimes Rockstar seems to attract it on purpose. It's a GTA "thing" and produces a good amount of publicity each time. That said, kicking off a debacle the size of EA's 2017 lootbox scandal definitely wouldn't work in the company's favor.
We'll get a clear answer for this eventually, when Rockstar reveals more details about the update. Stay tuned!
